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Sat 21 Nov · 12:30 UK · GW11 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester City v Fulham

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 11, from expected goals of 2.07 to 0.77. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
MCI win
61%
Draw
23%
FUL win
16%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 2–0
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester City vs Fulham?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester City vs Fulham in Gameweek 11: Manchester City 61%, draw 23%, Fulham 16%. The score pick is Manchester City 1–0 Fulham, and the single most probable scoreline is 2–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MCI goals down, FUL goals across

MCI ↓FUL 0FUL 1FUL 2FUL 3FUL 4FUL 5
MCI 07.0%3.4%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
MCI 111.0%10.4%3.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%
MCI 212.6%9.6%3.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%
MCI 38.7%6.7%2.6%0.7%0.1%0.0%
MCI 44.5%3.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%
MCI 51.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.9%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sat 12:30 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.07 — 0.77
★ MODE
2–0
12.6%
1–0
11.0%
1–1
10.4%
2–1
9.6%
3–0
8.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
54%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
48%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2 and defence #4 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Fulham
Attack ranks #18, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.07–0.77.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW11 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Manchester City
4-5-1
GK
Donnarumma
DEF
Rúben, Matheus N., Gvardiol, Guéhi
MID
Ndiaye, Anderson, Enzo, Doku, Cherki
FWD
Haaland
  • Semenyo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL MCI LINE-UP →
Fulham
4-5-1
GK
Leno
DEF
Bassey, Affengruber, Robinson, Castagne
MID
Iwobi, King, Bobb, Charles, Berge
FWD
Gonzalo

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL FUL LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW24Fulham vs Man City prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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