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Sat 21 Nov · 15:00 UK · GW11 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 11, from expected goals of 1.64 to 0.87. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
BOU win
51%
Draw
27%
NFO win
22%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 11: Bournemouth 51%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 22%. The score pick is Bournemouth 1–0 Nottingham Forest, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, NFO goals across

BOU ↓NFO 0NFO 1NFO 2NFO 3NFO 4NFO 5
BOU 09.6%5.7%3.1%0.9%0.2%0.0%
BOU 112.0%13.0%5.0%1.5%0.3%0.1%
BOU 210.9%9.5%4.1%1.2%0.3%0.0%
BOU 36.0%5.2%2.2%0.7%0.1%0.0%
BOU 42.4%2.1%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
BOU 50.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.64 — 0.87
★ MODE
1–1
13.0%
1–0
12.0%
2–0
10.9%
0–0
9.6%
2–1
9.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
46%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
48%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #7 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Nottingham Forest
Attack ranks #20, defence #13. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.64–0.87.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW11 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth
4-5-1
GK
Petrović
DEF
Truffert, Hill, Silva, Smith
MID
Rayan, Tavernier, Adams, Christie, Kluivert
FWD
Evanilson
  • Scott — Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Milosavljević — Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • J.Araujo — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Tóth.A — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BOU LINE-UP →
Nottingham Forest
5-4-1
GK
Sels
DEF
Murillo, N.Williams, Jair Cunha, Muñoz, Milenković
MID
McAtee, Ndoye, Schlager, Gibbs-White
FWD
Delap
  • Savona — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Dominguez — Muscular injury - Expected back 30 Dec
  • Igor Jesus 75% — Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL NFO LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW22Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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