QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 19: Manchester City 63%, draw 21%, Tottenham Hotspur 16%. The score pick is Manchester City 21 Tottenham Hotspur, and the single most probable scoreline is 21. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MCI goals down, TOT goals across

MCITOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
MCI 04.5%2.7%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%
MCI 16.9%9.5%4.5%1.6%0.4%0.1%
MCI 29.1%9.7%5.2%1.9%0.5%0.1%
MCI 37.0%7.5%4.0%1.4%0.4%0.1%
MCI 44.0%4.3%2.3%0.8%0.2%0.0%
MCI 51.8%2.0%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (21); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.0%.

Sat 2 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW19 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur

Onside's model gives Manchester City a 63% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 19, with 21% on the draw and 16% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 21 Tottenham Hotspur, from expected goals of 2.30 to 1.07. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester City
63%
Draw
21%
Tottenham Hotspur
16%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 21
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.301.07
★ MODE
21
9.7%
11
9.5%
20
9.1%
31
7.5%
30
7.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
65%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
60%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2 and defence #2 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #9, defence #12. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.301.07.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW19 predictions
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction — GW19 Score