Who will win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
NEW goals down, AVL goals across
| NEW ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW 0 | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| NEW 1 | 6.1% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| NEW 2 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| NEW 3 | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| NEW 4 | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| NEW 5 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.5%.
Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Onside's model gives Newcastle United a 50% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 7, with 24% on the draw and 26% on an away win. The score prediction is Newcastle United 2–1 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 1.88 to 1.36. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).