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Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Chelsea in Gameweek 7: Everton 40%, draw 27%, Chelsea 33%. The score pick is Everton 12 Chelsea, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, CHE goals across

EVECHE 0CHE 1CHE 2CHE 3CHE 4CHE 5
EVE 06.9%7.1%6.6%3.4%1.3%0.4%
EVE 16.0%12.9%8.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%
EVE 25.0%7.8%6.0%3.1%1.2%0.4%
EVE 32.2%3.5%2.7%1.4%0.5%0.2%
EVE 40.8%1.2%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
EVE 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.

Sat 17 Oct · 12:30 UK · GW7 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Chelsea

Onside's model gives Everton a 40% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 7, with 27% on the draw and 33% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 12 Chelsea, from expected goals of 1.35 to 1.56. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
40%
Draw
27%
Chelsea
33%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 11:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.351.56
★ MODE
11
12.9%
12
8.9%
21
7.8%
01
7.1%
00
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
60%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.351.56.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW7 predictions
Everton vs Chelsea Prediction — GW7 Score & Win Probability