Who will win Arsenal vs Brighton?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, BHA goals across
| ARS ↓ | BHA 0 | BHA 1 | BHA 2 | BHA 3 | BHA 4 | BHA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 1 | 9.2% | 10.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 2 | 10.7% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 3 | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.9%.
Arsenal v Brighton
Onside's model gives Arsenal a 53% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 38, with 26% on the draw and 21% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 2–1 Brighton, from expected goals of 2.07 to 0.93. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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