QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Brighton in Gameweek 38: Arsenal 53%, draw 26%, Brighton 21%. The score pick is Arsenal 21 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 20. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, BHA goals across

ARSBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
ARS 06.1%3.5%2.1%0.7%0.2%0.0%
ARS 19.2%10.7%4.4%1.4%0.3%0.1%
ARS 210.7%9.9%4.6%1.4%0.3%0.1%
ARS 37.4%6.9%3.2%1.0%0.2%0.0%
ARS 43.8%3.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 51.6%1.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.9%.

Sun 30 May · 16:00 UK · GW38 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Brighton

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 53% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 38, with 26% on the draw and 21% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 21 Brighton, from expected goals of 2.07 to 0.93. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
53%
Draw
26%
Brighton
21%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 20
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Your call
AI calls
2–1
Your call
·
·
locks Sun 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.070.93
★ MODE
11
10.7%
20
10.7%
21
9.9%
10
9.2%
30
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #5, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.070.93.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW38 predictions
Arsenal vs Brighton Prediction — GW38 Score & Win Probability