QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Crystal Palace the more likely winner of Crystal Palace vs Leeds United in Gameweek 38: Crystal Palace 38%, draw 29%, Leeds United 33%. The score pick is Crystal Palace 10 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CRY goals down, LEE goals across

CRYLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
CRY 09.1%7.9%5.9%2.4%0.8%0.2%
CRY 18.7%14.1%7.8%3.2%1.0%0.2%
CRY 26.8%8.4%5.2%2.2%0.7%0.2%
CRY 33.0%3.7%2.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%
CRY 41.0%1.2%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%
CRY 50.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.4%.

Sun 30 May · 16:00 UK · GW38 · model pl-dc-v2

Crystal Palace v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Crystal Palace a 38% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 38, with 29% on the draw and 33% on an away win. The score prediction is Crystal Palace 10 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.33 to 1.24. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Crystal Palace
38%
Draw
29%
Leeds United
33%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.331.24
★ MODE
11
14.1%
00
9.1%
10
8.7%
21
8.4%
01
7.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
48%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #17 and defence #16 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.331.24.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW38 predictions
Crystal Palace vs Leeds United Prediction — GW38 Score