Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
AVL goals down, MUN goals across
| AVL ↓ | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| AVL 1 | 5.7% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| AVL 2 | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| AVL 3 | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| AVL 4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AVL 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Onside's model gives Aston Villa a 42% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 21, with 26% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.57 to 1.54. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).