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Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Tottenham Hotspur the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United in Gameweek 21: Tottenham Hotspur 38%, draw 27%, Leeds United 35%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 21 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, LEE goals across

TOTLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
TOT 06.7%5.1%3.9%1.6%0.5%0.1%
TOT 17.9%12.5%6.7%2.7%0.8%0.2%
TOT 27.9%9.6%5.8%2.3%0.7%0.2%
TOT 34.5%5.5%3.3%1.3%0.4%0.1%
TOT 41.9%2.3%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
TOT 50.7%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Sat 16 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW21 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 38% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 21, with 27% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 21 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.72 to 1.21. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Tottenham Hotspur
38%
Draw
27%
Leeds United
35%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.721.21
★ MODE
11
12.5%
21
9.6%
20
7.9%
10
7.9%
12
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #9 and defence #12 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.721.21.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW21 predictions
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United Prediction — GW21 Score