Who will win Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, NFO goals across
| MCI ↓ | NFO 0 | NFO 1 | NFO 2 | NFO 3 | NFO 4 | NFO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| MCI 1 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 2 | 11.9% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 3 | 9.3% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 4 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| MCI 5 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.2%.
Manchester City v Nottingham Forest
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 59% chance of beating Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 21, with 24% on the draw and 17% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 2–0 Nottingham Forest, from expected goals of 2.34 to 0.80. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).