QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Liverpool?

The Onside model makes Liverpool the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Liverpool in Gameweek 20: Sunderland 31%, draw 27%, Liverpool 42%. The score pick is Sunderland 12 Liverpool, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, LIV goals across

SUNLIV 0LIV 1LIV 2LIV 3LIV 4LIV 5
SUN 06.3%8.1%8.7%5.4%2.5%1.0%
SUN 14.4%11.8%9.8%6.1%2.9%1.1%
SUN 23.2%5.9%5.5%3.5%1.6%0.6%
SUN 31.2%2.2%2.1%1.3%0.6%0.2%
SUN 40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
SUN 50.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Wed 6 Jan · 20:00 UK · GW20 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Liverpool

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 31% chance of beating Liverpool in Gameweek 20, with 27% on the draw and 42% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 12 Liverpool, from expected goals of 1.13 to 1.87. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
31%
Draw
27%
Liverpool
42%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Your call
AI calls
1–2
Your call
·
·
locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.131.87
★ MODE
11
11.8%
12
9.8%
02
8.7%
01
8.1%
00
6.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #18 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Liverpool
Attack ranks #3, defence #3. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.131.87.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW20 predictions
Sunderland vs Liverpool Prediction — GW20 Score & Win Probability