Who will win Manchester United vs Newcastle United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MUN goals down, NEW goals across
| MUN ↓ | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUN 0 | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| MUN 1 | 6.3% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| MUN 2 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| MUN 3 | 4.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| MUN 4 | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MUN 5 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.4%.
Manchester United v Newcastle United
Onside's model gives Manchester United a 41% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 20, with 26% on the draw and 33% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester United 2–1 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 1.84 to 1.36. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).