Who will win Everton vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
EVE goals down, AVL goals across
| EVE ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVE 0 | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| EVE 1 | 8.1% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| EVE 2 | 7.3% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| EVE 3 | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| EVE 4 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| EVE 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.
Everton v Aston Villa
Onside's model gives Everton a 48% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 20, with 27% on the draw and 25% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 2–1 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 1.53 to 1.25. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).