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World Cup 2026 Semi-finals predictions

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo points to France (12.1%) and England (11.5%) as the leading semi-finals candidates. The semi-finals run 14 – 15 July 2026. Full top-4 below — each call is graded after full time at /model-record.
★ SF PREDICTIONS · 10K MONTE CARLO · UPDATED HOURLY

World Cup 2026 Semi-finals

Four sides remain at the World Cup 2026 semi-finals. The model converges sharply at this point — every previous result is locked in, so the probabilities reflect the actual semi-final draw.

4 TEAMS REMAINING·14 – 15 July 2026·FIRST KO Tue 14 Jul 21:00 BST
● TOP 4 SEMI-FINALS CANDIDATES

The sides the model rates most likely

#1
12.1%
France
Champion prob
#2
11.5%
England
Champion prob
#3
10.8%
Spain
Champion prob
#4
9.3%
Argentina
Champion prob
● DEEPER
Full bracket predictions →Run the simulator →Champion shortlist →Knockout fixtures →England vs Croatia →
● SEMI-FINALS FAQ

FAQ

+Which teams are most likely to reach the Semi-finals at the World Cup 2026?

Per Onside's model, France, England, Spain, Argentina are the most likely sides to be involved in the Semi-finals. Full top 4 list with champion probability is above.

+When are the World Cup 2026 Semi-finals?

The Semi-finals run 14 – 15 July 2026. First kick-off is Tue 14 Jul 21:00 BST.

+Who is favourite to win the World Cup 2026?

France currently leads the model at 12.1% champion probability, with England next at 11.5%. The Final is at MetLife Stadium on 19 July.

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