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World Cup 2026 Semi-finals predictions

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo points to Spain (59.5%) and Argentina (40.5%) as the leading semi-finals candidates. The semi-finals run 14 – 15 July 2026. Full top-4 below — each call is graded after full time at /model-record.
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Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-31
★ SF PREDICTIONS · 10K MONTE CARLO · UPDATED HOURLY

World Cup 2026 Semi-finals

The World Cup 2026 semi-finals are settled: Spain beat France 2-0 and Argentina beat England 2-1. The final is Spain v Argentina at MetLife Stadium on Sunday 19 July — see the model's call on the final.

4 TEAMS REMAINING·14 – 15 July 2026·FIRST KO Tue 14 Jul 21:00 BST
● TOP 4 SEMI-FINALS CANDIDATES

The sides the model rates most likely

#1
59.5%
Spain
Champion prob
#2
40.5%
Argentina
Champion prob
#3
0.0%
France
Champion prob
#4
0.0%
England
Champion prob
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● SEMI-FINALS FAQ

FAQ

+Which teams are most likely to reach the Semi-finals at the World Cup 2026?

Per Onside's model, Spain, Argentina, France, England are the most likely sides to be involved in the Semi-finals. Full top 4 list with champion probability is above.

+When are the World Cup 2026 Semi-finals?

The Semi-finals run 14 – 15 July 2026. First kick-off is Tue 14 Jul 21:00 BST.

+Who is favourite to win the World Cup 2026?

Spain currently leads the model at 59.5% champion probability, with Argentina next at 40.5%. The Final is at MetLife Stadium on 19 July.

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