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Who will win Everton vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Leeds United in Gameweek 25: Everton 43%, draw 29%, Leeds United 28%. The score pick is Everton 10 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, LEE goals across

EVELEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
EVE 09.3%6.9%4.5%1.6%0.4%0.1%
EVE 110.1%13.9%6.6%2.4%0.6%0.1%
EVE 28.5%9.1%4.9%1.7%0.5%0.1%
EVE 34.2%4.5%2.4%0.9%0.2%0.0%
EVE 41.5%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
EVE 50.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Wed 10 Feb · 20:00 UK · GW25 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Everton a 43% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 25, with 29% on the draw and 28% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 10 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.47 to 1.07. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
43%
Draw
29%
Leeds United
28%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.471.07
★ MODE
11
13.9%
10
10.1%
00
9.3%
21
9.1%
20
8.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
47%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
52%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.471.07.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW25 predictions
Everton vs Leeds United Prediction — GW25 Score & Win Probability