QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester United vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Manchester United vs Brighton in Gameweek 25: Manchester United 35%, draw 27%, Brighton 38%. The score pick is Manchester United 21 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MUN goals down, BHA goals across

MUNBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
MUN 06.2%5.4%4.7%2.1%0.7%0.2%
MUN 16.7%12.4%7.6%3.5%1.2%0.3%
MUN 26.6%9.1%6.3%2.9%1.0%0.3%
MUN 33.6%4.9%3.4%1.6%0.5%0.1%
MUN 41.5%2.0%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.1%
MUN 50.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Wed 10 Feb · 20:00 UK · GW25 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester United v Brighton

Onside's model gives Manchester United a 35% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 25, with 27% on the draw and 38% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester United 21 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.64 to 1.38. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester United
35%
Draw
27%
Brighton
38%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.641.38
★ MODE
11
12.4%
21
9.1%
12
7.6%
10
6.7%
20
6.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
62%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #5, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.641.38.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW25 predictions
Manchester United vs Brighton Prediction — GW25 Score