Wed 10 Feb · 20:00 UK · GW25 · model pl-dc-v2 · pre-season
Newcastle United v Chelsea
Newcastle United
42%
Draw
25%
Chelsea
33%
Model pick: 2–1 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →Your call
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
EXPECTED GOALS
1.67 — 1.44
★ MODE
1–1
12.1%
2–1
9.0%
1–2
7.7%
2–2
6.4%
2–0
6.2%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Why the model leans this way
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #5 and defence #13 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.Chelsea
Attack ranks #4, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.67–1.44.Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2 · pre-season). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Think you can beat this call?
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).