Who will win Liverpool vs Sunderland?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LIV goals down, SUN goals across
| LIV ↓ | SUN 0 | SUN 1 | SUN 2 | SUN 3 | SUN 4 | SUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| LIV 1 | 8.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| LIV 2 | 10.7% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| LIV 3 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LIV 4 | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| LIV 5 | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.1%.
Liverpool v Sunderland
Onside's model gives Liverpool a 56% chance of beating Sunderland in Gameweek 13, with 24% on the draw and 20% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 2–0 Sunderland, from expected goals of 2.32 to 0.91. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).