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Who will win Brentford vs Arsenal?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Brentford vs Arsenal in Gameweek 13: Brentford 31%, draw 28%, Arsenal 41%. The score pick is Brentford 12 Arsenal, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BRE goals down, ARS goals across

BREARS 0ARS 1ARS 2ARS 3ARS 4ARS 5
BRE 06.9%8.8%9.1%5.5%2.5%0.9%
BRE 14.7%12.2%9.8%5.9%2.7%1.0%
BRE 23.2%5.9%5.3%3.2%1.4%0.5%
BRE 31.2%2.1%1.9%1.1%0.5%0.2%
BRE 40.3%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.1%
BRE 50.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.

Wed 2 Dec · 20:00 UK · GW13 · model pl-dc-v2

Brentford v Arsenal

Onside's model gives Brentford a 31% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 13, with 28% on the draw and 41% on an away win. The score prediction is Brentford 12 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.08 to 1.81. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brentford
31%
Draw
28%
Arsenal
41%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.081.81
★ MODE
11
12.2%
12
9.8%
02
9.1%
01
8.8%
00
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #8 and defence #8 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.081.81.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW13 predictions
Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction — GW13 Score & Win Probability