Who will win Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
NEW goals down, MUN goals across
| NEW ↓ | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW 0 | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| NEW 1 | 5.9% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| NEW 2 | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| NEW 3 | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| NEW 4 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| NEW 5 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Onside's model gives Newcastle United a 48% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 13, with 25% on the draw and 27% on an away win. The score prediction is Newcastle United 2–1 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.69 to 1.48. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).