Who will win Bournemouth vs Brighton?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BOU goals down, BHA goals across
| BOU ↓ | BHA 0 | BHA 1 | BHA 2 | BHA 3 | BHA 4 | BHA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOU 0 | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| BOU 1 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| BOU 2 | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| BOU 3 | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| BOU 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| BOU 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.
Bournemouth v Brighton
Onside's model gives Bournemouth a 38% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 13, with 27% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Bournemouth 1–2 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.47 to 1.50. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).