Who will win Manchester City vs Arsenal?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, ARS goals across
| MCI ↓ | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| MCI 1 | 6.7% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| MCI 2 | 5.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| MCI 3 | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| MCI 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.
Manchester City v Arsenal
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 38% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 23, with 28% on the draw and 34% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 1–2 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.38 to 1.45. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
- Aston Villa vs Ipswich Town prediction
- Bournemouth vs Fulham prediction
- Brentford vs Man Utd prediction
- Chelsea vs Nott'm Forest prediction
- Coventry City vs Leeds prediction
- Hull City vs Crystal Palace prediction
- Liverpool vs Everton prediction
- Newcastle vs Brighton prediction
- Spurs vs Sunderland prediction