Who will win Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, NFO goals across
| CHE ↓ | NFO 0 | NFO 1 | NFO 2 | NFO 3 | NFO 4 | NFO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| CHE 1 | 8.3% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 2 | 10.4% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 3 | 7.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| CHE 4 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| CHE 5 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.6%.
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 53% chance of beating Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 23, with 25% on the draw and 22% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Nottingham Forest, from expected goals of 2.22 to 0.95. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).