The roadmap explained
Most FPL managers make their transfers reactively — bin a player after a blank, chase last week's top scorer, panic on injury news. The Onside model plans transfers proactively: the chart above shows the optimal sequence for GW1-6 based on pre-season projections + likely fixture conditions.
Key principle: every transfer either captures EV (target a riser, exit a faller) or fixes a structural issue (rotation, set-piece monopoly). Random transfers reactively burn free transfers + hits — the same managers who finish below median.
This roadmap assumes the model template draft. Your roadmap may differ if your draft prioritises different anchors — adjust the steps to match your XI.
GW1-GW3: the patient phase
GW1: HOLD. No transfer. Captain Haaland. Watch how the league's first weekend unfolds — minutes confirmations, set-piece deliveries, Maresca/Alonso/Iraola tactical fingerprints. A free transfer banked at GW1 is a stronger transfer in GW2 with one round of data behind it.
GW2: FREE TRANSFER · Foden → Mbeumo (or similar rotation flag). After GW1 you have one round of confirmed minutes. If a £6m budget midfielder rotated as suspected (Foden, Doku, Diaby), pivot to a set-piece monopolist at the same price (Mbeumo, Semenyo, Rogers). Net team-value +£0.1m.
GW3: −4 HIT · Palmer → Bruno. The Alonso-bounce trade was either confirmed (Palmer minutes hit, role locked) or denied (Palmer subbed at 60). If denied, take a -4 hit to pivot. Bruno costs £0.5m less + carries the Onside model's highest BPS projection. Team-value flat at £100.0m but model EV +12.
GW4: the wildcard peak
GW4: ★ WILDCARD 1. The model's historical EV peak (+47 points/season vs no-WC1). Post-international break, you have:
• 3 GWs of minutes data — confirmed rotation patterns • 3 GWs of set-piece deliveries — confirmed monopolies • Manager-of-the-month conversation crystallising around 3-4 names • Fixture swing for GW5-9 visible
The wildcard squad target: Roefs + £4 GK rotation / Gabriel + Robinson + Tarkowski + 2x rotating budget / Bruno + Saka + Mbeumo + Rogers + £4.5m bench / Haaland + Watkins + Thiago. Total £100.0m. Net team-value of the wildcard squad: £100.4m due to compounded GW1-3 rises.
GW5-6: capture the fixture swing
GW5: FREE TRANSFER · Watkins → Isak. Newcastle's GW5-9 home fixture cluster activates. Isak's xCaptain projection on a home-vs-bottom-half = 11.8 vs Watkins' 8.4 on a similar fixture. The model rates this swap +1.4 xCaptain/90 over the next 4 GWs. Team-value +£0.2m.
GW6: HOLD. The Triple Captain GW22 plan locks the rest of the chip cycle. Holding the free transfer at GW6 lets you respond to surprise news (injury, manager change) without spending it reactively. Team-value coasts at £100.8m through the international break.
The rest of the season follows the same pattern: HOLD-then-FREE around the international breaks, opportunistic hits when the model surfaces a +8 xP/90 gap, second wildcard GW28, Triple Cap GW22, Free Hit GW18 + GW34, Bench Boost GW27.