CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Brazil win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

POSSIBLE — outside shot. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Brazil a 8.0% champion probability — ranked #5 of 48 nations. Brazil is a top-tier favourite (FIFA #6, 8 Premier League players in the squad).

🇧🇷BrazilGroup CFIFA #6CONMEBOL

Brazil's path to the final

REACH R16
67.1%
REACH QF
43.5%
REACH SF
25.5%
REACH FINAL
14.9%
CHAMPION
8.0%

Brazil's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Brazil vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

Brazil's Premier League players

8 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD

Alisson BeckerGabriel MagalhãesBruno GuimarãesCasemiroMatheus CunhaIgor ThiagoGabriel MartinelliRayan

In one line

Brazil has a credible outside shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 8.0% champion probability, ranking them #5 of 48 nations. They play in Group C and have 8 Premier League players in their squad. Their model probability to reach the knockout rounds is high (67.1% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Brazil team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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