CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Spain win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

YES — genuine contender. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Spain a 11.7% champion probability — ranked #2 of 48 nations. Spain is a top-tier favourite (FIFA #2, 7 Premier League players in the squad).

🇪🇸SpainGroup HFIFA #2UEFA

Spain's path to the final

REACH R16
70.7%
REACH QF
49.6%
REACH SF
33.3%
REACH FINAL
19.8%
CHAMPION
11.7%

Spain's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Spain vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

Spain's Premier League players

7 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD

David RayaPedro PorroMarc CucurellaRodriMartín ZubimendiMikel MerinoYeremy Pino

In one line

Spain is one of the genuine contenders to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 11.7% champion probability, ranking them #2 of 48 nations. They play in Group H and have 7 Premier League players in their squad. Their model probability to reach the knockout rounds is high (70.7% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Spain team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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