CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Norway win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

UNLIKELY — tournament far too open. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Norway a 0.1% champion probability — ranked #26 of 48 nations. Norway is a mid-tier outsider (FIFA #31, 7 Premier League players in the squad).

🇳🇴NorwayGroup IFIFA #31UEFA

Norway's path to the final

REACH R16
27.4%
REACH QF
7.7%
REACH SF
2.1%
REACH FINAL
0.4%
CHAMPION
0.1%

Norway's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Norway vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

Norway's Premier League players

7 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD

David Møller WolfeKristoffer AjerMartin ØdegaardSander BergeErling HaalandJørgen Strand LarsenOscar Bobb

In one line

Norway is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 0.1% champion probability, ranking them #26 of 48 nations. They play in Group I and have 7 Premier League players in their squad. Group-stage survival itself is uncertain (27.4% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Norway team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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