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FPL 2026/27 · price traps

Priced on a system they have already left

FPL sets prices from last season. But a defensive contribution rate belongs to a role inside a manager system, not to a player. These 33 carried a high rate into 2026/27 and then changed club, manager or position — so the number their price is built on describes something that no longer exists.The season now has evidence. Each player below carries his live 2026/27 rate next to last season's, and a plain call on which way it has gone.
Flagged
33
most expensive first
Holding up
15
at 90% of last season or better
Fell away
3
below 70% of last season
The most expensive trap
Szoboszlai
LIV
Szoboszlai
Defensive actions / 90, this season
9.7
£6.7m · last season 9.4/90
Holding up

MOST EXPENSIVE FIRST

33 FLAGGED
  1. Dominik Szoboszlai
    Szoboszlai
    LIV · MID · 9.4 actions/90 last season
    Holding up9.7/90 this season vs 9.4 · 503 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £6.7m
    0.38–0.57
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  2. Rodrigo 'Rodri' Hernandez Cascante
    Rodrigo
    MCI · MID · 12.3 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes
    Why it was flagged in July
    • Manager reported but unconfirmed (Maresca (reported))
    £6.5m
    0.88–1.32
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  3. Virgil van Dijk
    Virgil
    LIV · DEF · 9.3 actions/90 last season
    Holding up9.4/90 this season vs 9.3 · 810 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £6.4m
    0.72–1.07
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  4. Elliot Anderson
    Anderson
    NFO → MCI · MID · 13.9 actions/90 last season
    Down on last season11.8/90 this season vs 13.9 · 696 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at NFO
    • Manager reported but unconfirmed (Maresca (reported))
    £6.3m
    0.97–1.96
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  5. Alex Scott
    Scott
    BOU · MID · 12.2 actions/90 last season
    Holding up12.1/90 this season vs 12.2 · 446 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.9m
    0.74–1.11
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  6. Ryan Gravenberch
    Gravenberch
    LIV · MID · 9.0 actions/90 last season
    Holding up11.6/90 this season vs 9.0 · 341 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £5.8m
    0.28–0.42
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  7. Marcos Senesi Barón
    Senesi
    BOU → TOT · DEF · 11.5 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes9.6/90 this season vs 11.5 · 178 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at BOU
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.7m
    0.92–1.86
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  8. Youri Tielemans
    Tielemans
    AVL → MUN · MID · 9.8 actions/90 last season
    Holding up10.4/90 this season vs 9.8 · 588 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at AVL
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.7m
    0.35–0.71
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  9. Mateus Fernandes
    Fernandes
    WHU → TOT · MID · 11.0 actions/90 last season
    Down on last season9.8/90 this season vs 11.0 · 449 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at WHU
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.6m
    0.48–0.98
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  10. Joao Gomes
    Gomes
    WOL → AVL · MID · 12.3 actions/90 last season
    Down on last season9.2/90 this season vs 12.3 · 390 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at WOL
    £5.5m
    0.83–1.36
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  11. Nico González Iglesias
    N.Gonzalez
    MCI · MID · 11.9 actions/90 last season
    Down on last season9.8/90 this season vs 11.9 · 497 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • Manager reported but unconfirmed (Maresca (reported))
    £5.5m
    0.84–1.26
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  12. James Hill
    Hill
    BOU · DEF · 11.1 actions/90 last season
    Holding up11.2/90 this season vs 11.1 · 810 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.5m
    1.08–1.62
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  13. Curtis Jones
    C.Jones
    LIV · MID · 11.1 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.69–1.04
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  14. Kobbie Mainoo
    Mainoo
    MUN · MID · 10.2 actions/90 last season
    Holding up14.4/90 this season vs 10.2 · 476 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.52–0.78
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  15. Trevoh Chalobah
    Chalobah
    CHE · DEF · 8.6 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Xabi Alonso) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.57–0.85
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  16. Rodrigo Bentancur
    Bentancur
    TOT · MID · 13.3 actions/90 last season
    Holding up14.7/90 this season vs 13.3 · 381 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.4m
    0.88–1.32
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  17. Mason Mount
    Mount
    MUN · MID · 9.1 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes10.3/90 this season vs 9.1 · 140 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.4m
    0.24–0.36
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  18. Moisés Caicedo Corozo
    Caicedo
    CHE · MID · 11.8 actions/90 last season
    Fell away7.7/90 this season vs 11.8 · 350 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Xabi Alonso) — a different defensive shape
    £5.3m
    0.76–1.14
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  19. Conor Gallagher
    Gallagher
    TOT · MID · 9.4 actions/90 last season
    Holding up12.1/90 this season vs 9.4 · 291 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.3m
    0.29–0.44
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  20. Sandro Tonali
    Tonali
    NEW → TOT · MID · 9.1 actions/90 last season
    Holding up10.1/90 this season vs 9.1 · 787 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at NEW
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.3m
    0.18–0.36
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  21. Lewis Cook
    Cook
    BOU · MID · 14.8 actions/90 last season
    Fell away9.2/90 this season vs 14.8 · 354 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    1.28–1.92
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  22. Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro
    Ugarte
    MUN · MID · 14.6 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    1.26–1.89
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  23. Tyler Adams
    Adams
    BOU · MID · 11.8 actions/90 last season
    Holding up11.4/90 this season vs 11.8 · 637 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    0.68–1.02
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  24. Kevin Danso
    Danso
    TOT · DEF · 11.6 actions/90 last season
    Fell away6.2/90 this season vs 11.6 · 376 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    1.10–1.66
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  25. Ryan Christie
    Christie
    BOU · MID · 11.3 actions/90 last season
    Holding up15.9/90 this season vs 11.3 · 346 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    0.73–1.10
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  26. Wesley Fofana
    Fofana
    CHE · DEF · 10.8 actions/90 last season
    Holding up12.3/90 this season vs 10.8 · 402 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Xabi Alonso) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.93–1.39
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  27. Cristian Romero
    Romero
    TOT · DEF · 9.5 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.65–0.98
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  28. Jan Paul van Hecke
    Van Hecke
    BHA → TOT · DEF · 8.9 actions/90 last season
    Holding up8.3/90 this season vs 8.9 · 810 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at BHA
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.51–1.04
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  29. Pape Matar Sarr
    P.M.Sarr
    TOT · MID · 11.9 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £4.9m
    0.84–1.26
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  30. Pascal Struijk
    Struijk
    LEE → BHA · DEF · 9.1 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes8.2/90 this season vs 9.1 · 154 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at LEE
    £4.9m
    0.63–1.02
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  31. Mats Wieffer
    Wieffer
    BHA · DEF · 12.7 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes8.4/90 this season vs 7.9 · 182 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • Reclassified MID to DEF — ball recoveries no longer count for him, and his threshold moves to 10
    £4.8m
    0.31–0.48
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  32. Amine Adli
    Adli
    BOU · MID · 10.3 actions/90 last season
    Too few minutes5.6/90 this season vs 10.3 · 16 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £4.8m
    0.54–0.81
    July band, DefCon pts/start
  33. Andrey Nascimento dos Santos
    Andrey Santos
    CHE → MUN · MID · 9.3 actions/90 last season
    Holding up12.4/90 this season vs 9.3 · 327 mins
    Why it was flagged in July
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at CHE
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £4.7m
    0.30–0.61
    July band, DefCon pts/start

Flagged when last season rate was 8.5+ actions per 90, the price is £5.0m or more, and the club, manager or position changed. Snapshot 2026-07-27. This season's rates and prices are live from the official FPL feed. Last season's rate is re-based to the 2026/27 counting rule so the two compare like for like.

FULL DEFCON PROJECTIONSWHO CHANGED POSITION

QUESTIONS

What is an FPL price trap?

A player whose price was set using last season output, where the conditions that produced that output have since changed. Defensive contribution rates in particular are a property of a role inside a manager system, not of a player. Move the player or the manager and the rate is evidence about something that no longer exists.

Does this mean I should avoid these players?

No. It means the range of outcomes is wider than the price suggests. Some will be fine and some will not, and preseason minutes and early-season role are what resolve it. The point of the list is to stop you paying a premium for a certainty that is not there.

Why not just adjust the projection down?

Because we have no defensible basis for a specific multiplier. Inventing one would produce a confident number we could not justify, which is exactly what this product exists not to do. We widen the band and show you why instead.