Onside.

FPL 2026/27

Priced on a system
they have already left

FPL sets prices from last season. But a defensive contribution rate belongs to a role inside a manager system, not to a player. These 33 carried a high rate into 2026/27 and then changed club, manager or position — so the number their price is built on describes something that no longer exists.

This is not a prediction that they will fail. It is a statement that nobody knows yet, and that the price is charging you as though somebody does.

MOST EXPENSIVE FIRST

33 FLAGGED
  1. Dominik Szoboszlai
    Szoboszlai
    LIV · MID · 9.4 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £7.0m
    0.38–0.57
    DefCon pts/start
  2. Anderson
    NFO → MCI · MID · 13.9 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at NFO
    • Manager reported but unconfirmed (Maresca (reported))
    £6.5m
    0.97–1.96
    DefCon pts/start
  3. Rodrigo
    MCI · MID · 12.3 actions/90 last season
    • Manager reported but unconfirmed (Maresca (reported))
    £6.5m
    0.88–1.32
    DefCon pts/start
  4. Virgil van Dijk
    Virgil
    LIV · DEF · 9.3 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £6.5m
    0.72–1.07
    DefCon pts/start
  5. Scott
    BOU · MID · 12.2 actions/90 last season
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £6.0m
    0.74–1.11
    DefCon pts/start
  6. Senesi
    BOU → TOT · DEF · 11.5 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at BOU
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £6.0m
    0.92–1.86
    DefCon pts/start
  7. Fernandes
    WHU → TOT · MID · 11.0 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at WHU
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £6.0m
    0.48–0.98
    DefCon pts/start
  8. Tielemans
    AVL → MUN · MID · 9.8 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at AVL
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £6.0m
    0.35–0.71
    DefCon pts/start
  9. Gravenberch
    LIV · MID · 9.0 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £6.0m
    0.28–0.42
    DefCon pts/start
  10. Bentancur
    TOT · MID · 13.3 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.88–1.32
    DefCon pts/start
  11. Gomes
    WOL → AVL · MID · 12.3 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at WOL
    £5.5m
    0.83–1.36
    DefCon pts/start
  12. N.Gonzalez
    MCI · MID · 11.9 actions/90 last season
    • Manager reported but unconfirmed (Maresca (reported))
    £5.5m
    0.84–1.26
    DefCon pts/start
  13. Caicedo
    CHE · MID · 11.8 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Xabi Alonso) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.76–1.14
    DefCon pts/start
  14. Hill
    BOU · DEF · 11.1 actions/90 last season
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.5m
    1.08–1.62
    DefCon pts/start
  15. C.Jones
    LIV · MID · 11.1 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Andoni Iraola) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.69–1.04
    DefCon pts/start
  16. Mainoo
    MUN · MID · 10.2 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.52–0.78
    DefCon pts/start
  17. Gallagher
    TOT · MID · 9.4 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.29–0.44
    DefCon pts/start
  18. Tonali
    NEW → TOT · MID · 9.1 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at NEW
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.18–0.36
    DefCon pts/start
  19. Mount
    MUN · MID · 9.1 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.24–0.36
    DefCon pts/start
  20. Chalobah
    CHE · DEF · 8.6 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Xabi Alonso) — a different defensive shape
    £5.5m
    0.57–0.85
    DefCon pts/start
  21. Cook
    BOU · MID · 14.8 actions/90 last season
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    1.28–1.92
    DefCon pts/start
  22. Ugarte
    MUN · MID · 14.6 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    1.26–1.89
    DefCon pts/start
  23. Wieffer
    BHA · DEF · 12.7 actions/90 last season
    • Reclassified MID to DEF — ball recoveries no longer count for him, and his threshold moves to 10
    £5.0m
    0.31–0.48
    DefCon pts/start
  24. P.M.Sarr
    TOT · MID · 11.9 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.84–1.26
    DefCon pts/start
  25. Adams
    BOU · MID · 11.8 actions/90 last season
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    0.68–1.02
    DefCon pts/start
  26. Danso
    TOT · DEF · 11.6 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    1.10–1.66
    DefCon pts/start
  27. Christie
    BOU · MID · 11.3 actions/90 last season
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    0.73–1.10
    DefCon pts/start
  28. Fofana
    CHE · DEF · 10.8 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Xabi Alonso) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.93–1.39
    DefCon pts/start
  29. Adli
    BOU · MID · 10.3 actions/90 last season
    • No manager confirmed — the system is unknown
    £5.0m
    0.54–0.81
    DefCon pts/start
  30. Cristian Romero
    Romero
    TOT · DEF · 9.5 actions/90 last season
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.65–0.98
    DefCon pts/start
  31. Andrey Santos
    CHE → MUN · MID · 9.3 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at CHE
    • New manager (Michael Carrick) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.30–0.61
    DefCon pts/start
  32. Pascal Struijk
    Struijk
    LEE → BHA · DEF · 9.1 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at LEE
    £5.0m
    0.63–1.02
    DefCon pts/start
  33. Van Hecke
    BHA → TOT · DEF · 8.9 actions/90 last season
    • New club — last season's rate was earned at BHA
    • New manager (Roberto De Zerbi) — a different defensive shape
    £5.0m
    0.51–1.04
    DefCon pts/start

Flagged when last season rate was 8.5+ actions per 90, the price is £5.0m or more, and the club, manager or position changed. Snapshot 2026-07-27.

FULL DEFCON PROJECTIONSWHO CHANGED POSITION

QUESTIONS

What is an FPL price trap?

A player whose price was set using last season output, where the conditions that produced that output have since changed. Defensive contribution rates in particular are a property of a role inside a manager system, not of a player. Move the player or the manager and the rate is evidence about something that no longer exists.

Does this mean I should avoid these players?

No. It means the range of outcomes is wider than the price suggests. Some will be fine and some will not, and preseason minutes and early-season role are what resolve it. The point of the list is to stop you paying a premium for a certainty that is not there.

Why not just adjust the projection down?

Because we have no defensible basis for a specific multiplier. Inventing one would produce a confident number we could not justify, which is exactly what this product exists not to do. We widen the band and show you why instead.