Can Iran win the World Cup 2026?
UNLIKELY — tournament far too open. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Iran a 0.3% champion probability — ranked #23 of 48 nations. Iran is a mid-tier outsider (FIFA #21, 0 Premier League players in the squad).
Iran's path to the final
Iran's group fixtures
3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
Iran vs the field
TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS
In one line
Iran is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 0.3% champion probability, ranking them #23 of 48 nations. They play in Group G and have 0 Premier League players in their squad. Their group-stage path is the main hurdle (41.4% R16).
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