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World Cup 2026 Quarter-finals predictions

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo points to France (12.3%) and England (11.6%) as the leading quarter-finals candidates. The quarter-finals run 9 – 11 July 2026. Full top-8 below — each call is graded after full time at /model-record.
★ QF PREDICTIONS · 10K MONTE CARLO · UPDATED HOURLY

World Cup 2026 Quarter-finals

Eight teams remain for the World Cup 2026 quarter-finals. Our model ranks each by champion probability — by this round, the sample is fully informed by the tournament so far.

8 TEAMS REMAINING·9 – 11 July 2026·FIRST KO Thu 9 Jul 22:00 BST
● TOP 8 QUARTER-FINALS CANDIDATES

The sides the model rates most likely

#1
12.3%
France
Champion prob
#2
11.6%
England
Champion prob
#3
11.1%
Spain
Champion prob
#4
9.0%
Argentina
Champion prob
#5
7.5%
Netherlands
Champion prob
#6
7.5%
Portugal
Champion prob
#7
7.4%
Brazil
Champion prob
#8
5.1%
Belgium
Champion prob
● DEEPER
Full bracket predictions →Run the simulator →Champion shortlist →Knockout fixtures →England vs Croatia →
● QUARTER-FINALS FAQ

FAQ

+Which teams are most likely to reach the Quarter-finals at the World Cup 2026?

Per Onside's model, France, England, Spain, Argentina, Netherlands are the most likely sides to be involved in the Quarter-finals. Full top 8 list with champion probability is above.

+When are the World Cup 2026 Quarter-finals?

The Quarter-finals run 9 – 11 July 2026. First kick-off is Thu 9 Jul 22:00 BST.

+Who is favourite to win the World Cup 2026?

France currently leads the model at 12.3% champion probability, with England next at 11.6%. The Final is at MetLife Stadium on 19 July.

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