GW2 REVIEWED. GW3 CALLED.
the week the template broke — and why the machine hands Bruno the armband next
What just happened
A 79-point average hides a violent week: United put five past Ipswich, Chelsea and Brighton traded seven at the Bridge, and Spurs blanked at home. The 70% who captained Haaland got 13; the 48% who own Bruno watched him post the score of the season so far.
Every GW2 result
GW2 top scorers
United 5-2 Ipswich, and the two names that matter are both in red: Bruno 23, Mbeumo 11. The template was built on Arsenal defenders and Haaland — it now has to make room.
Spurs 0-2 Newcastle at home. The returns came from the away end — Hall (£5.0m, 7% owned) took 11 — and every Spurs attacker you were eyeing goes back on the shelf until the fixtures turn.
Chelsea 4-3 Brighton: seven goals, attacking returns everywhere, defence optional. Both sides land in the GW3 fixture-watch for exactly opposite reasons.
What the model says next
The model hands the GW3 armband to Bruno Fernandes — 2.2 projected points clear of the field at Everton — with Haaland the 70%-owned shield at home to Coventry, and Gibbs-White the differential armband at 8.9% owned, Spurs at home.
23 at home to Ipswich, now the top projection of the week by a distance. On everything United win a shirt for.
The other half of the United double-up. £8.0m for the second-best projection in the game this week.
13 points last week and under 9% owned. The rank-climber’s armband: Spurs away form is the bet.
Promoted Coventry at the Etihad — the safe shield 70% of managers will reach for. The model has three players above him.
The big one at the Emirates. Highest-projected route into the week’s heavyweight fixture.
ORDER = THE MODEL'S CALIBRATED PROJECTION · BAR = MIDDLE-80% SIMULATED RANGE · DOT = PROJECTION
Differentials, under 10% owned
GW3 fixtures
TEAM COLOUR = HOW HARD ITS OPPONENT MAKES THIS FIXTURE · ACID EASY · WHITE MID · ORANGE HARD · RED HARDEST
- 01Arsenal v Chelsea closes the week — the model rates it the hardest fixture on both sides’ cards (FDR 4 and 5). Saka is its pick of the routes in; be slower to trust either defence.
- 02Ipswich v Liverpool opens Friday night. Szoboszlai (£7.0m, 42% owned) carries Liverpool’s top projection of the week at 5.83.
- 03Everton at home is a 4-difficulty fixture — and the model STILL puts both United attackers top of the board. When the projection survives the fixture grade, that is the signal.
NUMBERS FROZEN AT PUBLISH (2026-09-01) FROM THE LIVE FPL API AND THE ONSIDE ENGINE. PROJECTIONS AND PRICES MOVE — THE LIVE BOARDS ABOVE ALWAYS CARRY THE CURRENT CALL.