CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Mexico win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

POSSIBLE — outside shot. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Mexico a 4.6% champion probability — ranked #9 of 48 nations. Mexico is a second-tier contender (FIFA #15, 1 Premier League players in the squad).

🇲🇽MexicoGroup AFIFA #15CONCACAF

Mexico's path to the final

REACH R16
64.8%
REACH QF
40.1%
REACH SF
20.3%
REACH FINAL
9.8%
CHAMPION
4.6%

Mexico's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Mexico vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

Mexico's Premier League players

1 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD

Raúl Jiménez

In one line

Mexico has a credible outside shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 4.6% champion probability, ranking them #9 of 48 nations. They play in Group A and have 1 Premier League players in their squad. Their model probability to reach the knockout rounds is high (64.8% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Mexico team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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