CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Senegal win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

LONG SHOT — significant upsets required. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Senegal a 1.1% champion probability — ranked #15 of 48 nations. Senegal is a second-tier contender (FIFA #14, 8 Premier League players in the squad).

🇸🇳SenegalGroup IFIFA #14CAF

Senegal's path to the final

REACH R16
48.3%
REACH QF
23.4%
REACH SF
9.7%
REACH FINAL
3.6%
CHAMPION
1.1%

Senegal's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Senegal vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

Senegal's Premier League players

8 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD

Mamadou SarrEl-Hadji Malick DioufIdrissa GueyeHabib DiarraPape Matar SarrIliman NdiayeNicolas JacksonIsmaïla Sarr

In one line

Senegal is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 1.1% champion probability, ranking them #15 of 48 nations. They play in Group I and have 8 Premier League players in their squad. Their group-stage path is the main hurdle (48.3% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Senegal team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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