Can United States win the World Cup 2026?
LONG SHOT — significant upsets required. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives United States a 3.5% champion probability — ranked #11 of 48 nations. United States is a second-tier contender (FIFA #16, 4 Premier League players in the squad).
United States's path to the final
United States's group fixtures
3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
United States vs the field
TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS
United States's Premier League players
4 PL PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD
In one line
United States is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 3.5% champion probability, ranking them #11 of 48 nations. They play in Group D and have 4 Premier League players in their squad. Their group-stage path is the main hurdle (56.8% R16).
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