Onside Captain Pick Accuracy
Every captain recommendation tracked and scored. Did Onside call it right?
Results will appear here after GW1 scoring.
Check back after the first gameweek — the accuracy tracker fills in automatically each Tuesday morning.
Gameweek-by-Gameweek History
| GW | Recommended | xP | Actual pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW38 | Cherki(MCI) | 4.2 | — | Pending |
"Actual pts" = raw points scored by the recommended player (not doubled). Scoring runs every Tuesday morning after the previous GW is finalised.
How accuracy is measured
A captain pick is marked “Beat template” if the recommended player outscored the most-owned FPL captain that gameweek. This measures edge over the consensus — beating the average manager's choice — rather than simply predicting the single top scorer. The “Top-1 hit rate” tracks the harder challenge: did Onside pick the actual highest-scoring captain that week?
Methodology follows prequential evaluation (Dawid 1984): every prediction is logged before the outcome is known, and scores are applied only after the GW is finalised by FPL. No historical predictions are fabricated. The record starts from the moment the tracker was deployed.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Onside pick the FPL captain each week?▾
The engine uses 9 signals including xP, recent form, fixture difficulty, bookmaker odds, and set-piece roles. The top captain is selected by highest median captain EV — doubling expected value — from a 5,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation run fresh each Tuesday.
How accurate is Onside's captain recommendation?▾
The track record is shown above. The engine targets consistent outperformance of the average FPL manager's captain choice for that gameweek. This means beating the consensus, not just predicting the top scorer — a higher bar that actually moves the needle on your rank.
Where can I see this week's captain pick?▾
The dashboard Captain card shows the current gameweek recommendation. You can also visit the /captain/[GW] pages for a full breakdown of each week — top pick, alternatives, risk profile, and confidence margins.
What data does Onside use for captain predictions?▾
FPL form, fixture difficulty rating (FDR), bookmaker implied odds, set-piece roles (corner takers, free-kick and penalty takers), per-team residuals, ownership momentum, DefCon injury severity, and Premier Injuries scrape data. See /about-the-engine for the full signal breakdown.