FPL 2026/27 · GAMEWEEK 25

GW25 DIFFERENTIALS

the picks the field doesn't own

<15% OWNEDBUY / STRONG BUY ONLYDEADLINE Wed 10 Feb, 18:30 UK time

Top pick: Saka (ARS) at just 9.6% ownership, projecting 5.6 xP.

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01

THE PICKS · BEST PROJECTION UNDER 15% OWNED

TOP DIFFERENTIAL
Bukayo Saka
ARS · MID · £9.5m
5.6 xPMUST CAPTAIN1.011.5
9.6%
OWNED

Captain — ARS are scoring freely. 15% haul chance.

Nathan Collins
BRE · DEF · £5.5m
5.5 xPBUY1.013.0
1.8%
OWNED

Consider buying — BRE are scoring freely. Avg 5.5 pts, ceiling 13.

Anton Stach
LEE · MID · £6.0m
4.9 xPBUY2.09.0
0.9%
OWNED

Consider buying — LEE are scoring freely. Avg 4.8 pts, ceiling 9.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
EVE · MID · £6.5m
4.6 xPBUY2.09.0
3.3%
OWNED

Consider buying — EVE are scoring freely. Avg 4.6 pts, ceiling 9.

Nikola Milenković
NFO · DEF · £5.5m
4.6 xPBUY1.010.0
2.0%
OWNED

Consider buying — NFO are scoring freely. Avg 4.5 pts, ceiling 10.

02

THE TAG · ALL THREE MUST HOLD

<15%
OWNERSHIP
BUY+
ACTION RATING
xP ✓
UNDERLYING METRICS
03

PAIR WITH A RELIABLE ARMBAND

FULL CAPTAIN ANALYSIS →

GW25 DIFFERENTIALS · COMMON QUESTIONS

Who are the best FPL differentials for GW25?

Onside's top GW25 differential is Saka (ARS, 9.6% owned, 5.6 projected xP). Captain — ARS are scoring freely. 15% haul chance. Other differentials: Collins (1.8% owned), Stach (0.9% owned), Dewsbury-Hall (3.3% owned).

What counts as a differential in FPL?

In FPL, a differential is a player owned by fewer than 10–15% of managers. Owning a differential who scores big gives a huge rank boost because the majority of managers miss the points. Onside's DIFFERENTIAL tag identifies players with ownership below 15% who also carry a BUY or STRONG_BUY action rating from the v5 engine — meaning the engine thinks they're genuinely undervalued, not just low-owned for bad reasons.

Is it worth taking a hit for a differential in GW25?

A -4 point transfer hit needs a minimum 4-point swing to break even. For a differential to justify a hit, the engine should project them at 8+ expected points (since the hit costs 4, you need 4 more than a bench player gives). Differentials are best transferred in for free on wildcards or when your squad has a glaring weakness — not as speculative hits. Check the GW25 full guide for the highest-confidence buy options.

When is the GW25 FPL deadline?

The Fantasy Premier League GW25 deadline is Wed 10 Feb, 18:30 UK time. Make sure your differential selections and transfers are confirmed before this time.

When to play a differential

Differentials are highest value when you're chasing rank mid-season or in mini-leagues with points gaps. A 15% owned player who scores or assists gives you a 6–9 point swing vs the field compared to a 50%+ template player hitting the same return. Use these picks when your template is strong — not to replace reliable assets, but to add upside beside them.

ONSIDE v5 · DIFFERENTIAL = <15% OWNED + BUY/STRONG BUY · MONTE CARLO k=2,000 · xP = MEDIAN OUTCOME · FPL API · REFRESHED HOURLY