Who will win Brentford vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BRE goals down, AVL goals across
| BRE ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRE 0 | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| BRE 1 | 6.7% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| BRE 2 | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| BRE 3 | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| BRE 4 | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| BRE 5 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.
Brentford v Aston Villa
Onside's model gives Brentford a 53% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 35, with 24% on the draw and 23% on an away win. The score prediction is Brentford 2–1 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 1.79 to 1.32. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).