QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Leeds United vs Arsenal?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Leeds United vs Arsenal in Gameweek 35: Leeds United 27%, draw 29%, Arsenal 44%. The score pick is Leeds United 01 Arsenal, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LEE goals down, ARS goals across

LEEARS 0ARS 1ARS 2ARS 3ARS 4ARS 5
LEE 07.5%10.4%10.9%6.8%3.2%1.2%
LEE 14.4%11.8%9.9%6.2%2.9%1.1%
LEE 22.5%4.8%4.5%2.8%1.3%0.5%
LEE 30.8%1.4%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
LEE 40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
LEE 50.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Sat 8 May · 15:00 UK · GW35 · model pl-dc-v2

Leeds United v Arsenal

Onside's model gives Leeds United a 27% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 35, with 29% on the draw and 44% on an away win. The score prediction is Leeds United 01 Arsenal, from expected goals of 0.90 to 1.87. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Leeds United
27%
Draw
29%
Arsenal
44%
Model pick: 01 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
0.901.87
★ MODE
11
11.8%
02
10.9%
01
10.4%
12
9.9%
00
7.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
52%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14 and defence #10 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 0.901.87.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW35 predictions
Leeds United vs Arsenal Prediction — GW35 Score & Win Probability