CHAMPION PROBABILITY · WC 2026 · UPDATED HOURLY

Can Canada win the World Cup 2026?

ONSIDE AI · VERDICT

UNLIKELY — tournament far too open. Onside's 2,000-run Monte Carlo gives Canada a 0.4% champion probability — ranked #22 of 48 nations. Canada is a mid-tier outsider (FIFA #30, 0 Premier League players in the squad).

🇨🇦CanadaGroup BFIFA #30CONCACAF

Canada's path to the final

REACH R16
38.6%
REACH QF
14.0%
REACH SF
5.0%
REACH FINAL
1.1%
CHAMPION
0.4%

Canada's group fixtures

3 GROUP MATCHES · MODEL WIN PROBABILITY

Canada vs the field

TOP CHAMPION-PROBABILITY RIVALS

In one line

Canada is a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup — Onside's AI model gives them 0.4% champion probability, ranking them #22 of 48 nations. They play in Group B and have 0 Premier League players in their squad. Their group-stage path is the main hurdle (38.6% R16).

Full champion-probability board →Canada team pageUpset watchlist →Build your own bracket →
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