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World Cup 2026 Round of 16 predictions

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo points to France (12.7%) and England (11.7%) as the leading round of 16 candidates. The round of 16 run 4 – 7 July 2026. Full top-12 below — each call is graded after full time at /model-record.
★ R16 PREDICTIONS · 10K MONTE CARLO · UPDATED HOURLY

World Cup 2026 Round of 16

The Round of 16 follows directly from the new Round of 32. Survivors face off in straight knockout for a quarter-final place. Our model ranks the 12 sides most likely to come through.

16 TEAMS REMAINING·4 – 7 July 2026·FIRST KO Sat 4 Jul 22:00 BST
● TOP 12 ROUND OF 16 CANDIDATES

The sides the model rates most likely

#1
12.7%
France
Champion prob
#2
11.7%
England
Champion prob
#3
10.5%
Spain
Champion prob
#4
9.2%
Argentina
Champion prob
#5
8.2%
Portugal
Champion prob
#6
7.5%
Netherlands
Champion prob
#7
7.2%
Brazil
Champion prob
#8
5.0%
Belgium
Champion prob
#9
4.4%
Mexico
Champion prob
#10
4.2%
Germany
Champion prob
#11
3.9%
United States
Champion prob
#12
3.3%
Croatia
Champion prob
● DEEPER
Full bracket predictions →Run the simulator →Champion shortlist →Knockout fixtures →England vs Croatia →
● ROUND OF 16 FAQ

FAQ

+Which teams are most likely to reach the Round of 16 at the World Cup 2026?

Per Onside's model, France, England, Spain, Argentina, Portugal are the most likely sides to be involved in the Round of 16. Full top 12 list with champion probability is above.

+When are the World Cup 2026 Round of 16?

The Round of 16 run 4 – 7 July 2026. First kick-off is Sat 4 Jul 22:00 BST.

+Who is favourite to win the World Cup 2026?

France currently leads the model at 12.7% champion probability, with England next at 11.7%. The Final is at MetLife Stadium on 19 July.

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