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World Cup 2026 Round of 16 predictions

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo points to France (17.2%) and Spain (15.2%) as the leading round of 16 candidates. The round of 16 run 4 – 7 July 2026. Full top-12 below — each call is graded after full time at /model-record.
Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-31
R16 PREDICTIONS · 10K MONTE CARLO · UPDATED HOURLY

World Cup 2026 Round of 16

The Round of 16 follows directly from the new Round of 32. Survivors face off in straight knockout for a quarter-final place. Our model ranks the 12 sides most likely to come through.

16 TEAMS REMAINING·4 – 7 July 2026·FIRST KO Sat 4 Jul 22:00 BST
● TOP 12 ROUND OF 16 CANDIDATES

The sides the model rates most likely

● DEEPER
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ROUND OF 16 FAQ

FAQ

+Which teams are most likely to reach the Round of 16 at the World Cup 2026?

Per Onside's model, France, Spain, England, Argentina, Brazil are the most likely sides to be involved in the Round of 16. Full top 12 list with champion probability is above.

+When are the World Cup 2026 Round of 16?

The Round of 16 run 4 – 7 July 2026. First kick-off is Sat 4 Jul 22:00 BST.

+Who is favourite to win the World Cup 2026?

France currently leads the model at 17.2% champion probability, with Spain next at 15.2%. The Final is at MetLife Stadium on 19 July.

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World Cup 2026 Round of 16 Predictions — AI Path to the QF