Who will win Liverpool vs Sunderland?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LIV goals down, SUN goals across
| LIV ↓ | SUN 0 | SUN 1 | SUN 2 | SUN 3 | SUN 4 | SUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| LIV 1 | 10.5% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LIV 2 | 11.8% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LIV 3 | 8.0% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LIV 4 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| LIV 5 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.8%.
Liverpool v Sunderland
Onside's model gives Liverpool a 57% chance of beating Sunderland in Gameweek 13, with 24% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 1–0 Sunderland, from expected goals of 2.03 to 0.83. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).