QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bournemouth vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Brighton in Gameweek 13: Bournemouth 30%, draw 27%, Brighton 43%. The score pick is Bournemouth 12 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, BHA goals across

BOUBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
BOU 05.8%6.7%7.0%4.1%1.8%0.6%
BOU 14.7%11.9%9.4%5.5%2.4%0.9%
BOU 24.0%7.1%6.3%3.7%1.6%0.6%
BOU 31.8%3.1%2.8%1.6%0.7%0.3%
BOU 40.6%1.0%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
BOU 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.

Wed 2 Dec · 20:00 UK · GW13 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Brighton

Onside's model gives Bournemouth a 30% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 13, with 27% on the draw and 43% on an away win. The score prediction is Bournemouth 12 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.33 to 1.77. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Bournemouth
30%
Draw
27%
Brighton
43%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.331.77
★ MODE
11
11.9%
12
9.4%
21
7.1%
02
7.0%
01
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
62%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #9 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #2, defence #6. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.331.77.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW20Brighton vs Bournemouth predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction — GW13 Score & Win Probability