Who will win Brighton vs Bournemouth?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BHA goals down, BOU goals across
| BHA ↓ | BOU 0 | BOU 1 | BOU 2 | BOU 3 | BOU 4 | BOU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BHA 1 | 7.2% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| BHA 2 | 8.9% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| BHA 3 | 6.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| BHA 4 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| BHA 5 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.2%.
Brighton v Bournemouth
Onside's model gives Brighton a 56% chance of beating Bournemouth in Gameweek 20, with 24% on the draw and 20% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 2–1 Bournemouth, from expected goals of 2.12 to 1.11. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).