Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MUN goals down, MCI goals across
| MUN ↓ | MCI 0 | MCI 1 | MCI 2 | MCI 3 | MCI 4 | MCI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUN 0 | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MUN 1 | 4.5% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| MUN 2 | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MUN 3 | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| MUN 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MUN 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.
Manchester United v Manchester City0–1
Onside's model gives Manchester United a 30% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 4, with 25% on the draw and 45% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester United 1–2 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.41 to 1.79. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-market-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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