GW3 REVIEWED. GW4 CALLED.
the week the goals dried up — and why the machine still hands Bruno the derby armband
What just happened
A 51-point average is the floor of the season so far: four draws, two of them goalless, and the top haul of the week belonged to a 5.5%-owned full-back. The 71% who captained Haaland got 9 from the Coventry banker — and 1.79 million triple captains went up in the quietest week of the year.
Every GW3 result
GW3 top scorers
Mitchell 15 in the 3-2 at Fulham, Bogle 14, Vuskovic 12 — the podium belonged to defenders owned by almost nobody. In a week of four draws, the returns hid in the back lines.
1.79 million triple captains and 421,000 free hits went into a week that averaged 51. Haaland, the 71%-owned armband at home to promoted Coventry, returned 9 in a 1-0.
The model’s GW3 board went cold: Bruno 2 at Everton, Saka 2, Gibbs-White 3 — only Mbeumo (8) and Haaland (9) paid at all. Its worst week yet, and it changes nothing about how the next board is built: same engine, same calibrated order.
What the model says next
The model hands Bruno Fernandes the armband for the second week running — 7.16 projected, top of the board at home to City in Sunday’s derby — with Gakpo the value route at Anfield and two £6.0m Bournemouth midfielders crashing the top five.
Returned 2 at Everton and the machine doubles down anyway: top projection of the week, at home, in the derby. The widest band on the board — the ceiling pick, not the safe one.
11 in the 2-0 at Ipswich, now Fulham at Anfield. £7.2m and under 14% owned — the clearest value armband of the week.
Blanked against Chelsea; the model keeps the faith for the Saturday-night trip to Sunderland — still Arsenal’s top route into the week.
10 in the 2-1 over Chelsea, and the tightest band in the top five. The floor pick: £6.6m, on set pieces, projection barely blinks either way.
Back-to-back double-digit hauls and still 4% owned. Level on projection with Ødegaard at a third of the ownership — the rank-climber’s armband.
ORDER = THE MODEL'S CALIBRATED PROJECTION · BAR = MIDDLE-80% SIMULATED RANGE · DOT = PROJECTION
Differentials, under 10% owned
GW4 fixtures
TEAM COLOUR = HOW HARD ITS OPPONENT MAKES THIS FIXTURE · ACID EASY · WHITE MID · ORANGE HARD · RED HARDEST
- 01The Manchester derby closes Sunday at 16:30 — FDR 4 on both cards, and the model still tops its whole board with Bruno and has ten players projected ahead of the 71%-owned Haaland. The armband row gets decided at Old Trafford.
- 02Bournemouth v Brentford, Saturday 3pm, is the quiet fixture carrying three of the top ten projections — Scott, Tavernier and Janelt, none owned by more than 4%. Both ends of it are live.
- 03Leeds v Newcastle doesn’t kick off until Monday night. Bogle (14 last week, 1.3% owned) and Stach are the projection darlings there — a Monday differential means a weekend of watching your rank with moves you can’t make.
NUMBERS FROZEN AT PUBLISH (2026-09-08) FROM THE LIVE FPL API AND THE ONSIDE ENGINE. PROJECTIONS AND PRICES MOVE — THE LIVE BOARDS ABOVE ALWAYS CARRY THE CURRENT CALL.