GW3 REVIEWED. GW4 CALLED.
GW4 in 30 seconds
Bruno, again — 7.16, top of the board despite the derby. Ten players project ahead of the 71%-owned Haaland.
Rogers (CHE, £7.6m) — second-best six-week projection in the game (34.0), starting with Hull at home.
Don’t sell Bruno. 240,000 managers just did — the model has him №1 for GW4 and №1 for the next six, 9.6 clear of anyone.
Hold everything. 1.79m triple captains just burned in a 51-point week — City’s home windows in GW5 and GW7 are the reopening.
What just happened
A 51-point average is the floor of the season so far: four draws, two of them goalless, and the top haul of the week belonged to a 5.5%-owned full-back. The 71% who captained Haaland got 9 from the Coventry banker — and 1.79 million triple captains went up in the quietest week of the year.
Every GW3 result
GW3 top scorers
Mitchell’s brace in the 3-2 at Fulham made him the week’s top score at 5.5% owned; Bogle scored in a 14, Vuskovic headed a 12. In a week of four draws, the returns hid in the back lines.
1.79 million triple captains and 421,000 free hits went into a week that averaged 51. Haaland, the 71%-owned armband at home to promoted Coventry, returned 9 in a 1-0.
The model’s GW3 board went cold: Bruno 2 at Everton, Saka 2, Gibbs-White 3 — only Mbeumo (8) and Haaland (9) paid at all. Its worst week yet, and it changes nothing about how the next board is built: same engine, same calibrated order.
What the model says next
The model hands Bruno Fernandes the armband for the second week running — 7.16 projected, top of the board at home to City in Sunday’s derby — and its strongest calls this week are transfers: back Rogers’ six-week run, don’t follow 281,000 managers into Wissa, and whatever you do, don’t sell the top of the board.
Returned 2 at Everton and the machine doubles down anyway: top projection of the week, at home, in the derby, on penalties. The widest band on the board — the ceiling pick, not the safe one.
Two assists in the 2-0 at Ipswich, now a Fulham side that has conceded seven — third-worst in the league — at Anfield. £7.2m and under 14% owned: the value armband.
Blanked against Chelsea; the model keeps the faith for the Saturday-night trip to Sunderland — still Arsenal’s top route into the week, and on penalties.
Scored in the 2-1 over Chelsea, and carries the tightest band in the top five. The floor pick: £6.6m and the projection barely blinks either way.
Two assists last week, back-to-back double-digit hauls, still 4% owned. Level on projection with Ødegaard at a third of the ownership — the rank-climber’s armband.
ORDER = THE MODEL'S CALIBRATED PROJECTION · BAR = MIDDLE-80% SIMULATED RANGE · DOT = PROJECTION
Buys, traps, and one keep
383,000 bought him this week and the model co-signs: the second-best six-week projection in the game, and Chelsea’s run opens with Hull at home before Brentford, Bournemouth and Everton.
Sixth-best six-week outlook in the game at £6.0m and 3.1% owned. Goal plus maximum bonus last week, and Bournemouth open with back-to-back home games.
The best-value defensive buy on the board: two assists already this season from the left, and Brighton go to Coventry next — the kindest fixture on the slate.
The week’s fifth-most-bought player, and the model wants no part of it: 2.7 projected for GW4 and a bottom-tier 14.1 over six. Newcastle’s fixtures are kind — this projection isn’t.
240,000 sold him after the blank at Everton. The model’s answer: №1 projection for GW4, №1 six-week outlook in the game — 9.6 clear of second — and he’s on penalties. Selling now is selling the top of the board.
NEXT SIX = THE MODEL'S CALIBRATED SIX-GAMEWEEK PROJECTION · OWNERSHIP AND TRANSFER COUNTS FROM THE FPL API AT PUBLISH
Which chip — if any — this week
709,000 played it last week — that was the burn window. If yours is intact, the runs to build toward are Coventry, Palace and Newcastle (the three best six-week tickers). A derby week forces nothing.
1.79 million just spent it on a 9-point Haaland. City’s alternating run reopens cleaner windows: Sunderland at home in GW5, Ipswich at home in GW7.
421,000 free hits died in a 51-point week. GW4 is derby-topped with no standout banker fixture — the definition of a week to keep it in the pocket.
No case. Save it for a week your bench carries four starters you actually believe in — this slate isn’t it.
Where the points are
The model’s strongest attacking aggregate — in the derby. Bruno and Mbeumo are both top-seven projections this week.
Gakpo and Isak both project top-20 against a Fulham side that has conceded seven — only Ipswich and Palace have shipped more.
Three routes in — Palmer, Rogers and João Pedro all project top-20. The catch: Hull arrive with three straight clean sheets.
Three clean sheets in three, and the model’s top defensive aggregate — Hull’s defenders bank contribution points with or without the shutout. Tzolakis at £4.6m is the cheapest way in.
The league’s meanest defence gets a Saturday-night trip to Sunderland. Calafiori (47% owned) is the template route; White at 7.6% is the differential one.
Quietly third on the board — Tarkowski’s contribution floor travels, even to Spurs.
Differentials, under 10% owned
GW4 fixtures
TEAM COLOUR = HOW HARD ITS OPPONENT MAKES THIS FIXTURE · ACID EASY · WHITE MID · ORANGE HARD · RED HARDEST
Every team's next six, ranked
| TEAM | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV | BHA (H) | NFO (A) | NEW (H) | TOT (A) | FUL (H) | SUN (H) | 2.33 |
| CRY | IPS (H) | LEE (A) | NFO (H) | BHA (A) | NEW (H) | TOT (A) | 2.67 |
| NEW | LEE (A) | HUL (H) | COV (A) | AVL (H) | CRY (A) | EVE (H) | 2.67 |
| ARS | SUN (A) | BHA (A) | LEE (H) | NFO (A) | EVE (H) | LIV (A) | 3.00 |
| AVL | NFO (H) | TOT (A) | BRE (H) | NEW (A) | MCI (H) | FUL (H) | 3.00 |
| CHE | HUL (H) | BRE (A) | BOU (H) | EVE (A) | TOT (H) | MUN (H) | 3.00 |
| FUL | LIV (A) | MUN (H) | IPS (A) | HUL (H) | COV (A) | AVL (A) | 3.00 |
| HUL | CHE (A) | NEW (A) | EVE (H) | FUL (A) | BRE (H) | IPS (H) | 3.00 |
| IPS | CRY (A) | EVE (A) | FUL (H) | MCI (A) | NFO (H) | HUL (A) | 3.00 |
| LIV | FUL (H) | BOU (A) | MCI (H) | BRE (A) | BHA (H) | ARS (H) | 3.00 |
| MCI | MUN (A) | SUN (H) | LIV (A) | IPS (H) | AVL (A) | BHA (H) | 3.00 |
| NFO | AVL (A) | COV (H) | CRY (A) | ARS (H) | IPS (A) | BRE (A) | 3.00 |
| SUN | ARS (H) | MCI (A) | BHA (H) | BOU (A) | LEE (H) | COV (A) | 3.00 |
| BOU | BRE (H) | LIV (H) | CHE (A) | SUN (H) | MUN (A) | LEE (H) | 3.17 |
| EVE | TOT (A) | IPS (H) | HUL (A) | CHE (H) | ARS (A) | NEW (A) | 3.17 |
| TOT | EVE (H) | AVL (H) | MUN (A) | COV (H) | CHE (A) | CRY (H) | 3.17 |
| BRE | BOU (A) | CHE (H) | AVL (A) | LIV (H) | HUL (A) | NFO (H) | 3.33 |
| LEE | NEW (H) | CRY (H) | ARS (A) | MUN (H) | SUN (A) | BOU (A) | 3.33 |
| MUN | MCI (H) | FUL (A) | TOT (H) | LEE (A) | BOU (H) | CHE (A) | 3.33 |
| BHA | COV (A) | ARS (H) | SUN (A) | CRY (H) | LIV (A) | MCI (A) | 3.50 |
CELL COLOUR = FPL FIXTURE DIFFICULTY FOR THAT TEAM · SORTED BY AVERAGE OVER THE SIX
- 01The Manchester derby closes Sunday at 16:30 — FDR 4 on both cards, and the model still tops its whole board with Bruno and has ten players projected ahead of the 71%-owned Haaland. The armband row gets decided at Old Trafford.
- 02Bournemouth v Brentford, Saturday 3pm, is the quiet fixture carrying three of the top ten projections — Scott, Tavernier and Janelt, none owned by more than 4%. Both ends of it are live.
- 03Leeds v Newcastle doesn’t kick off until Monday night. Bogle (14 last week, 1.3% owned) and Stach are the projection darlings there — a Monday differential means a weekend of watching your rank with moves you can’t make.
The live boards, updated since this went out
- FPL injury news →64 ruled out · 28 doubtful · 5 suspended
- FPL price changes tonight →Neto leads the risers · Semenyo the fallers
- FPL predicted points →Onside xP for every player, graded after the gameweek
- Predicted line-ups →Every club’s likely XI from who actually starts
- FPL statistics →Haaland is the most owned, at 77.2%
NUMBERS FROZEN AT PUBLISH (2026-09-08) FROM THE LIVE FPL API AND THE ONSIDE ENGINE. PROJECTIONS AND PRICES MOVE — THE LIVE BOARDS ABOVE ALWAYS CARRY THE CURRENT CALL.