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FPL 2026/27 · GAMEWEEK 4

THE GW4 CAPTAIN

who gets the armband — ranked by the model

DEADLINE Sat 12 Sept, 13:30 UK timeMONTE CARLO k=2,000GRADED IN PUBLIC
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Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 4?

Onside's top captain pick for Gameweek 4 is B.Fernandes, projected 7.2 points before the armband doubles it. The alternatives, in model order, are Saka, Ødegaard. Every pick is ranked by expected points from a 2,000-run Monte Carlo over the GW4 fixtures, and the record is graded in public.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

LIVEB.Fernandes 7.2 xPts · GW4
Captain your own squad free →
01

THE PICK · GW4

Bruno Borges Fernandes
MUN
THE ARMBAND · #1
B.Fernandes
MID · £12.0m
ELITETEMPLATE · 46%
FLOOR 3.0xP 7.2CEIL 13.5
7.2
PROJECTED xP

Captain — B.Fernandes has the highest haul chance. 24% haul chance.

13.5
CEILING
3.0
FLOOR
46%
OWNED
+1.0
EDGE v #2
Bukayo Saka
#2Saka
ARS · £9.5m · 11.4%
FLOOR 2.8xP 6.2CEIL 11.1
6.2
xP
Martin Ødegaard
#3Ødegaard
ARS · £6.6m · 14.6%
FLOOR 3.0xP 6.0CEIL 10.5
6.0
xP
PROJECTED xP · THE FULL SHORTLIST · FIXTURE DIFFICULTY 1–5
1B.Fernandesv MCI 4
7.2
2Saka@ SUN 3
6.2
3Ødegaard@ SUN 3
6.0
4Scottv BRE 3
6.0
5Tavernierv BRE 3
5.9
6Mbeumov MCI 4
5.9
7Palmerv HUL 2
5.6
8Cherki@ MUN 4
5.4
9Janelt@ BOU 3
5.3
10Haaland@ MUN 4
5.1
02THE CAPTAIN BRACKET · H2H

Percentages are projected effective ownership — how much of the field is expected to captain each player. The xP ladder above ranks by expected points, so the most-captained pick isn’t always the model’s #1.

Haaland v Saka
56% v 18% PROJ. EO
Haaland v Bruno
56% v 12% PROJ. EO
Saka v Bruno
18% v 12% EO · TIER 2
Haaland v Isak
56% v 6% EO · DIFFERENTIAL
03

THE RECORD · GRADED IN PUBLIC

EVERY TOP PICK IS SCORED AFTER THE GAMEWEEK — THE LEDGER STARTS WITH GW1.

GW4 FULL GUIDE →GW4 DIFFERENTIALSMatch Centre
← GW3GW5 →

GW4 CAPTAIN · COMMON QUESTIONS

Who should I captain in FPL GW4?

Onside's top captain pick for GW4 is B.Fernandes (MUN) with 7.2 projected xP. Captain — B.Fernandes has the highest haul chance. 24% haul chance. Alternatives: Saka, Ødegaard, Scott, Tavernier, Mbeumo, Palmer, Cherki, Janelt, Haaland.

What is a differential captain option for GW4?

Saka (11.4% owned, 6.2 xP) is a differential captain option for GW4 — owned by fewer managers than the consensus pick, offering a rank-up opportunity if they deliver. Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 6.2 pts, ceiling 11.

When is the GW4 FPL deadline?

The Fantasy Premier League GW4 deadline is Sat 12 Sept, 13:30 UK time. All transfers, captaincy choices, and chip activations must be confirmed before this time.

How does Onside pick the best FPL captain?

Onside blends nine independent signals into an expected-points score, then runs a Monte Carlo simulation to rank captains by expected value — the median of each player's doubled-score distribution. The top pick maximises median captaincy return, not just peak upside. How the signals are built and weighted is proprietary.

Vice-captain tip

Always consider the vice-captain — if your captain blanks, your VC is the safety net. Pair a premium pick (e.g. a big-six midfielder in a home game) with a differential VC for maximum upside. The Onside engine scores both, so check the #2 and #3 picks as VC candidates.

RANKED BY ONSIDE v5 · MONTE CARLO k=2,000 · xP = MEDIAN OF DOUBLED-SCORE DISTRIBUTION · FPL API · REFRESHED HOURLY