GW4 FPL Guide
Captain Picks · Transfer Targets · Differentials
What should I do in FPL Gameweek 4?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
The Onside engine has processed 24 players — here are our top picks for GW4 based on projections, Monte Carlo simulations, and fixture difficulty analysis.
Captain Picks for GW4
Ranked by the engine's captain expected-value model — the #1 pick is our highest-confidence armband recommendation.
Captain — B.Fernandes has the highest haul chance. 24% haul chance.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 6.2 pts, ceiling 11.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 6.0 pts, ceiling 11.
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Consider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 6.0 pts, ceiling 11.
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Consider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 5.9 pts, ceiling 11.
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Consider buying — MUN are scoring freely. Avg 5.9 pts, ceiling 11.
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Consider buying — CHE are scoring freely. Avg 5.6 pts, ceiling 11.
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Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 10.
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Consider buying — BRE are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 5.1 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileTransfer Targets for GW4
Top STRONG BUY picks sorted by projected points — players our model rates most highly for this gameweek.
Captain — B.Fernandes has the highest haul chance. 24% haul chance.
View full profileConsider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 6.2 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 6.0 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 6.0 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 5.9 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — MUN are scoring freely. Avg 5.9 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — CHE are scoring freely. Avg 5.6 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 10.
View full profileConsider buying — BRE are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — BHA are scoring freely. Avg 5.1 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 5.1 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 5.0 pts, ceiling 10.
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Consider buying — CHE are scoring freely. Avg 5.0 pts, ceiling 10.
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Consider buying — HUL are scoring freely. Avg 5.0 pts, ceiling 13.
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Consider buying — EVE are scoring freely. Avg 4.8 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — LIV are scoring freely. Avg 4.8 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 4.7 pts, ceiling 10.
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Consider buying — CHE are scoring freely. Avg 4.6 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — HUL are scoring freely. Avg 4.6 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — LEE are scoring freely. Avg 4.5 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — LIV are scoring freely. Avg 4.5 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — NFO are scoring freely. Avg 4.5 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — FUL are scoring freely. Avg 4.4 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — LEE are scoring freely. Avg 4.4 pts, ceiling 9.
View full profileDifferentials for GW4
Low-ownership picks our engine tags as DIFFERENTIAL — highly rated players most managers won't own, giving you a potential rank edge.
Consider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 6.0 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 5.9 pts, ceiling 11.
View full profileConsider buying — BRE are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileConsider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 4.7 pts, ceiling 10.
View full profileConsider buying — HUL are scoring freely. Avg 4.6 pts, ceiling 9.
View full profileModel Reads for GW4
Beyond the picks — the macro calls from our season simulation that shape the opening weeks.
The promoted sides are not equal
Our season simulation does not price the promoted clubs the same. Market-calibrated priors separate them, so budget assets from the best-organised promoted defence carry real clean-sheet value while the weakest is a points sink. Do not buy “a promoted defender” on price alone — buy the right one.
See the predicted table →Newcastle are a wider bet post-Howe
Newcastle open 2026/27 under a new head coach after Eddie Howe’s exit on the eve of the season. A managerial change unsettles roles, minutes and set-piece duties, so every Newcastle asset carries a wider outcome band early. Treat them as ceiling plays, not safe floors, until the new system beds in.
Check the fixtures →Floors are conservative until line-ups settle
Before a ball is kicked, nobody’s minutes are locked. Early projections carry wider bands than mid-season, so our floors sit low by design — the ceiling is where the pre-season signal lives. Expect the range to tighten once rotation and starting XIs become clear over the opening weeks.
See the captain ladder →GW4 Planning Checklist
Run through this before the GW4 deadline to maximise your expected points and avoid common mistakes.
- 1Confirm captain pick — choose your highest expected-points starter with a favourable fixture. See GW4 captain analysis →
- 2Check injuries before deadline — late team news can invalidate your captain and starting XI. View player availability →
- 3Review fixture difficulty — avoid players facing a Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) of 4–5 unless they have exceptional form. Check fixture difficulty →
- 4Monitor price changes — rising players gain value overnight; falling players lose it. Act before the price falls. Track price changes →
- 5Identify differentials — any highly-rated player below 10% ownership is a rank-up opportunity. Captaining a differential that delivers can jump you thousands of places. GW4 differentials →
- 6Check ownership data — know what the template squad looks like so you can decide where to be brave vs. where to follow the crowd. Most owned players →
Explore More on Onside Arena
Also researching GW4:
Player profiles featured in this guide:
GW4 — Common Questions
Answered by Onside AI engine
Who should I captain in GW4?
Onside's top captain pick for GW4 is B.Fernandes (MUN) with 7.2 projected points. Captain — B.Fernandes has the highest haul chance. 24% haul chance. Alternative: Saka.
What are the best transfer targets for GW4?
Onside's top GW4 transfer targets are: 1. B.Fernandes (£12.0m, 45.6% owned, 7.2 projected xP); 2. Saka (£9.5m, 11.4% owned, 6.2 projected xP); 3. Ødegaard (£6.6m, 14.7% owned, 6.0 projected xP). These are rated STRONG BUY by the v5 engine based on fixture difficulty, form, and Monte Carlo simulation.
Who are the best FPL differentials for GW4?
Top differential for GW4: Scott (only 4.7% owned, 6.0 projected xP). Consider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 6.0 pts, ceiling 11. A differential is a high-rated, low-ownership pick that gives a rank edge if they score big.
When is the GW4 FPL deadline?
The GW4 Fantasy Premier League deadline is Sat 12 Sept, 13:30 UK time. Make sure to finalise your transfers, captain pick, and vice-captain before this time.
How does Onside generate GW4 recommendations?
Onside blends nine independent signals into an expected-points score, then runs Monte Carlo simulations to rank captains by expected value — the median of doubled-score distributions. Data refreshes every hour. How the signals are built is proprietary.
What happened in FPL GW4?
GW4 has not yet finished. Once all matches are complete, this section will show the average score, highest score, most captained player, and top scorer. Check back after the final GW4 fixture.
Who should I captain in FPL GW4?
Onside's top captain recommendation for GW4 is B.Fernandes (MUN), projected at 7.2 expected points. For a full captain deep-dive with fixture analysis, visit /captain/4.
What is a good FPL score in GW4?
A good FPL score varies by gameweek depending on how many matches are played and how many bonus points are distributed. As a rule of thumb, scoring 10+ points above the gameweek average puts you in a strong rank-gaining position. The average FPL score across all managers typically sits between 40–65 points per gameweek. For double gameweeks, average scores can reach 80–100+ points. Check the GW4 retrospective section above once the gameweek finishes for the official average and highest scores.
Get the GW4 verdict before the deadline
One email per gameweek: captain call, transfer targets and differentials from the model — graded in public. Free.
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Data sourced from Fantasy Premier League API. Verdicts computed by the Onside v5 stacking engine with Monte Carlo simulation (k=2000). Captain rankings derive from per-player captain expected-value (median of doubled-score distribution). Refresh every hour via ISR.