GW16 FPL Guide
Captain Picks · Transfer Targets · Differentials
What should I do in FPL Gameweek 16?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
The Onside engine has processed 27 players — here are our top picks for GW16 based on projections, Monte Carlo simulations, and fixture difficulty analysis.
Captain Picks for GW16
Ranked by the engine's captain expected-value model — the #1 pick is our highest-confidence armband recommendation.
Captain — BRE are scoring freely. 8% haul chance.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 4.6 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — NFO are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 5.1 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — HUL are scoring freely. Avg 2.5 pts, ceiling 4.
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Consider buying — CHE have a friendly run-in. Avg 3.7 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — IPS are scoring freely. Avg 3.5 pts, ceiling 6.
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Consider buying — CHE have a friendly run-in. Avg 4.9 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — MUN are scoring freely. Avg 4.3 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileTransfer Targets for GW16
Top STRONG BUY picks sorted by projected points — players our model rates most highly for this gameweek.
Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 5.5 pts, ceiling 9.
View full profileConsider buying — NFO are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 9.
View full profileCaptain — BRE are scoring freely. 8% haul chance.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 5.1 pts, ceiling 9.
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Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 5.0 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileConsider buying — CHE have a friendly run-in. Avg 4.9 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileConsider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 4.6 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileConsider buying — MUN are scoring freely. Avg 4.3 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — EVE are scoring freely. Avg 4.2 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — LIV are scoring freely. Avg 4.2 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 4.2 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 7.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — LEE are scoring freely. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — LEE are scoring freely. Avg 4.0 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — SUN are scoring freely. Avg 4.0 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — HUL are scoring freely. Avg 4.0 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 3.9 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — LIV are scoring freely. Avg 3.9 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — MUN are scoring freely. Avg 3.9 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — NEW are scoring freely. Avg 3.9 pts, ceiling 8.
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Consider buying — ARS are scoring freely. Avg 3.8 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — CHE have a friendly run-in. Avg 3.8 pts, ceiling 7.
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Consider buying — BHA are scoring freely. Avg 3.8 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileDifferentials for GW16
Low-ownership picks our engine tags as DIFFERENTIAL — highly rated players most managers won't own, giving you a potential rank edge.
Consider buying — NFO are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 9.
View full profileCaptain — BRE are scoring freely. 8% haul chance.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 5.1 pts, ceiling 9.
View full profileConsider buying — EVE are scoring freely. Avg 4.2 pts, ceiling 7.
View full profileConsider buying — BOU are scoring freely. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 8.
View full profileGW16 Planning Checklist
Run through this before the GW16 deadline to maximise your expected points and avoid common mistakes.
- 1Confirm captain pick — choose your highest expected-points starter with a favourable fixture. See GW16 captain analysis →
- 2Check injuries before deadline — late team news can invalidate your captain and starting XI. View player availability →
- 3Review fixture difficulty — avoid players facing a Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) of 4–5 unless they have exceptional form. Check fixture difficulty →
- 4Monitor price changes — rising players gain value overnight; falling players lose it. Act before the price falls. Track price changes →
- 5Identify differentials — any highly-rated player below 10% ownership is a rank-up opportunity. Captaining a differential that delivers can jump you thousands of places. GW16 differentials →
- 6Check ownership data — know what the template squad looks like so you can decide where to be brave vs. where to follow the crowd. Most owned players →
Explore More on Onside Arena
Also researching GW16:
Player profiles featured in this guide:
GW16 — Common Questions
Answered by Onside AI engine
Who should I captain in GW16?
Onside's top captain pick for GW16 is Schade (BRE) with 5.2 projected points. Captain — BRE are scoring freely. 8% haul chance. Alternative: Saka.
What are the best transfer targets for GW16?
Onside's top GW16 transfer targets are: 1. Haaland (£15.5m, 71.7% owned, 5.6 projected xP); 2. Gibbs-White (£7.9m, 9.7% owned, 5.3 projected xP); 3. Schade (£6.0m, 4.2% owned, 5.2 projected xP). These are rated STRONG BUY by the v5 engine based on fixture difficulty, form, and Monte Carlo simulation.
Who are the best FPL differentials for GW16?
Top differential for GW16: Gibbs-White (only 9.7% owned, 5.3 projected xP). Consider buying — NFO are scoring freely. Avg 5.3 pts, ceiling 9. A differential is a high-rated, low-ownership pick that gives a rank edge if they score big.
When is the GW16 FPL deadline?
The GW16 Fantasy Premier League deadline is Sat 19 Dec, 13:30 UK time. Make sure to finalise your transfers, captain pick, and vice-captain before this time.
How does Onside generate GW16 recommendations?
Onside blends nine independent signals into an expected-points score, then runs Monte Carlo simulations to rank captains by expected value — the median of doubled-score distributions. Data refreshes every hour. How the signals are built is proprietary.
What happened in FPL GW16?
GW16 has not yet finished. Once all matches are complete, this section will show the average score, highest score, most captained player, and top scorer. Check back after the final GW16 fixture.
Who should I captain in FPL GW16?
Onside's top captain recommendation for GW16 is Schade (BRE), projected at 5.2 expected points. For a full captain deep-dive with fixture analysis, visit /captain/16.
What is a good FPL score in GW16?
A good FPL score varies by gameweek depending on how many matches are played and how many bonus points are distributed. As a rule of thumb, scoring 10+ points above the gameweek average puts you in a strong rank-gaining position. The average FPL score across all managers typically sits between 40–65 points per gameweek. For double gameweeks, average scores can reach 80–100+ points. Check the GW16 retrospective section above once the gameweek finishes for the official average and highest scores.
Get the GW16 verdict before the deadline
One email per gameweek: captain call, transfer targets and differentials from the model — graded in public. Free.
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Data sourced from Fantasy Premier League API. Verdicts computed by the Onside v5 stacking engine with Monte Carlo simulation (k=2000). Captain rankings derive from per-player captain expected-value (median of doubled-score distribution). Refresh every hour via ISR.