QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Leeds United in Gameweek 6: Arsenal 50%, draw 29%, Leeds United 21%. The score pick is Arsenal 10 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 10. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, LEE goals across

ARSLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
ARS 09.6%4.7%2.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 113.4%11.9%3.8%0.9%0.2%0.0%
ARS 212.9%9.4%3.4%0.8%0.1%0.0%
ARS 37.6%5.5%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
ARS 43.4%2.4%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
ARS 51.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (10); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.9%.

Sat 10 Oct · 12:30 UK · GW6 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 50% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 6, with 29% on the draw and 21% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 10 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.76 to 0.72. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
50%
Draw
29%
Leeds United
21%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 10
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
·
·
locks Sat 11:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.760.72
★ MODE
10
13.4%
20
12.9%
11
11.9%
00
9.6%
21
9.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
45%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
44%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #3 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #11, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.760.72.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW35Leeds vs Arsenal predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW6 predictions
Arsenal vs Leeds United Prediction — GW6 Score & Win Probability