QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Brighton in Gameweek 6: Sunderland 28%, draw 26%, Brighton 46%. The score pick is Sunderland 12 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, BHA goals across

SUNBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
SUN 06.1%8.0%8.8%5.6%2.7%1.0%
SUN 14.2%11.6%9.9%6.3%3.0%1.1%
SUN 23.1%5.8%5.5%3.5%1.7%0.6%
SUN 31.1%2.2%2.1%1.3%0.6%0.2%
SUN 40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
SUN 50.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.4%.

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK · GW6 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Brighton

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 28% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 6, with 26% on the draw and 46% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 12 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.12 to 1.90. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
28%
Draw
26%
Brighton
46%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.121.90
★ MODE
11
11.6%
12
9.9%
02
8.8%
01
8.0%
13
6.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #16 and defence #17 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #2, defence #6. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.121.90.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW35Brighton vs Sunderland predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction — GW6 Score & Win Probability